Certain stocks have a higher correlation with oil prices

September 06, 2023 | 03:09pm

These stocks could be the biggest winners and losers as oil prices rally again, history shows

Certain stocks have a higher correlation with oil prices

For investors looking to rake in profit from the recent oil rally, here are some companies that are poised to benefit off of higher crude prices. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are surging this week. After Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to extend voluntary oil supply cuts this year, contracts for WTI crude and Brent settled Tuesday at their highest levels since last November. WTI has leapt during the quarter starting in July, up 24% since then. Higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressure and feed central bankers' decisions on interest rates. They can also have a negative effect on the broader stock market. Higher correlation between oil prices means good news for some companies, however. CNBC Pro used LSEG data to look at the 100-day rolling correlations of Russell 1000 stocks to WTI futures to see which names tend to follow oil the closest. We screened for those names with current correlations of 0.6 or more. In other words, a 1% move on WTI would be associated with a 0.6% gain on the stock. The 10 most positively correlated stocks to oil are energy names, which tend to rise when oil prices get a boost. Marathon Oil has the highest current correlation coefficient out of any name at 0.71, followed by Diamondback Energy , Devon Energy and APA . Diamondback and Devon both have average correlations of about 0.7. Both are having big quarters, with Diamondback up nearly 19% for the quarter and Devon rising more than 10%. APA, which is the holding company for hydrocarbon exploration company Apache, also made the list. The stock is enjoying a hot quarter, with gains of 30%. North American petroleum company Ovintiv and oilfield services giant Halliburton also made the grade, with both up more than 23% quarter to date. There are several stocks that often struggle when crude oil rises, however. Stocks negatively correlated to oil would have prices that move inversely to that of the commodity. Insurance and automotive services company CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings has the highest negative current correlation to oil among stocks in the Russell 1000, meaning it may fall in the near term. The stock is down 2.5% in the quarter. Beverage giants such as Molson Coors , Monster and PepsiCo also top this list, along with fast-casual restaurant chains Wingstop and Chipotle . This trend may be partly attributed to increasing oil prices and other macroeconomic factors that can drive up the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, according to a Bank of Canada working paper. Molson and Monster have slipped 5.6% and 2.2%, respectively, during the current quarter, while PepsiCo is off more than 5%. Other names that made the list for their inverse relationship to oil include supply chain solutions company Manhattan Associates , computer software firm Cadence Design Systems and chocolatier Hershey . Correlations don't always hold up. Further, idiosyncratic drivers for each stock could play a bigger role in how it trades, compared to the moves in a commodity.

This story originally appeared on: CNBC - Author:Nick Wells