Jobs reports, inflation data and earnings will put last week's market rally to the test

April 27, 2025 | 10:39am

These are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market this week

Jobs reports, inflation data and earnings will put last week's market rally to the test

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House. Case in point: The S & P 500 sank more than 2% this past Monday as President Donald Trump was attacking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and providing scant details on tariff talks. Then on Tuesday , things started to turn around. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there "will be a de-escalation" in the trade war with China. It was the first day of what turned out to be a three-session rally for the S & P 500. Wednesday 's gains were fueled after Trump said he would not fire Powell and softened his stance on China. Thursday 's advance came despite China saying no trade talks were going on with the U.S., and the White House saying otherwise. The market finished higher Friday . When it was all said and done, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 4.6% and 6.7% , respectively, for the week. Nasdaq's outsized advance last week put it in the green for the month with just three trading days left in April. Our tech stock standouts last week included Broadcom 's 12.5% gain and CrowdStrike 's 13% advance. The broader market S & P 500, however, was still down 1.5% in April as health care and materials continued to struggle this month. For the week, the Dow rose 2.5%, but that did not put much of a dent in the 30-stock average's 4.5% monthly decline. .SPX .DJI,.IXIC YTD mountain S & P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq YTD Earnings from consumer-facing companies last week confirmed what the monthly consumer surveys have been reporting: People are worried about the economy and inflation and are not spending as freely. On Friday, the University of Michigan's final look at April consumer sentiment was a bit better than the prior release on both feelings about the economy and inflation. However, the readings were still dismal. Four Club names delivered their quarterly report cards last week. Depressed Danaher on Tuesday showed signs of life , and the stock picked up nearly 5.5%. The theme of Capital One's quarter, also out Tuesday, was resilient credit quality heading into next month's completion of its purchase of credit card company and payment network Discover Financial. Capital One soared more than 12% last week. It was our biggest winner. The portfolio's other financial stocks — Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs , and BlackRock — also performed well last week. On Thursday, we lowered our price target on Bristol Myers Squibb because the financials did not resolve lingering issues for the stock, which lost 2.7% for the week. Guidance from Dover , also out Thursday, was prudently conservative , and the market rewarded the stock. Dover shares rose 5% for the week. We sent out four trade alerts last week. On Monday, we made good on Jim Cramer's call earlier this month to lighten up on Apple and Nvidia because they are so hard to own in Trump's second administration due to U.S. tensions with China. Apple and Nvidia gained ground last week — more than 6% and 9%, respectively. We also bought more shares of Capital One before the earnings pop because we felt the stock on Monday should have done better following regulator approval for its Discover deal. On Tuesday, we bought more shares of BlackRock and Dover before they jumped last week. We also added to our Starbucks position, which perked up last week but was still losing roughly 15% in April on all the back and forth on China trade talks. We trimmed Linde on Thursday. Shares of the industrial-focused name have been resilient throughout the market turmoil and have maintained gains. There's plenty on the economic calendar in the week ahead, with pivotal releases on both sides of the Fed's dual policy mandate of maximum employment (jobs) and price stability (inflation). In that sense, the data in the coming days carries implications for the central bank's future moves on interest rates and investors' understanding of where the U.S. economy stands during the trade war more generally. In addition to the usual weekly jobless claims data on Thursday, there are three major labor market reports on tap. Job, jobs, jobs The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March is due out Tuesday morning. The closely watched release, known as JOLTS, measures the tightness or slack in the jobs market. That provides clues on whether businesses are looking to hire and potential wage inflation. As of Friday, the consensus estimate is 7.47 million job openings, according to FactSet. On Wednesday morning, payroll processing firm ADP's look at private job creation is slated for release. Economists expect private employers added 150,000 jobs in April, a month marked by tariff uncertainty, according to FactSet. ADP is generally seen as a preview of the U.S. government's official jobs report, though it's hardly a perfect harbinger. Friday brings that official government jobs data. The nonfarm payrolls report for April also is expected to show the U.S. added 150,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying unchanged from the prior month at 4.2%, according to FactSet. Of course, the impact of tariffs on hiring is a key question. Whether the Trump administration's efforts to downsize the federal workforce shows up in a material way is another question. In the March report, government positions dropped by just 4,000 . Inflation check The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is set to be released Wednesday morning, with economists expecteding that the PCE index rose 2.6% year over year in March and 0.1% on a sequential basis. It bears repeating that this report is for March, so it was before Trump's steep "reciprocal" tariffs briefly went into effect – then were paused while 10% baseline tariff on most trading partners was left in place. Nevertheless, the personal consumption expenditures index will shine a light on where price pressures in the economy stood before tariffs heated up. Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target, and central bankers are waiting to see the inflationary impacts of tariffs. Earnings On top of the busy week of jobs and inflation data, the earnings calendar is jam-packed inside and outside the portfolio. We have 10 Club names reporting — headlined by four Big Tech holdings — while other influential companies in the market include Visa on Tuesday, Caterpillar on Wednesday, and Mastercard and McDonald's on Thursday. Here's what to watch for when our portfolio names report, along with sales and revenue estimates courtesy of LSEG. All other estimates are from FactSet. Honeywell is the first of the Club stocks to report on Tuesday morning, and as an industrial company with economic sensitivity, the trade war's impact on customer orders will be a big focus. It's worth noting: The company's 2025 guidance offered in early February was already conservative. Its impending breakup into three standalone companies will be another topic of conversation. LSEG estimates: revenue of $9.59 billion and EPS: $2.21. Starbucks on Tuesday night is all about whether CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround efforts are showing further signs of progress after its last quarter showed early indications that they were. Will they help the coffee chain break its four-quarter streak of declining same-store sales? The current consensus on Wall Street is for a decline of 0.8%. The weakening consumer may have hurt Starbucks during the period (and also could weigh on its outlook). Finally, updates on its China strategy and whether it's facing anti-American backlash in that struggling market will be noteworthy. LSEG estimates: revenue of $8.86 billion and EPS of 50 cents. The biggest questions around Meta Platforms ' report after Wednesday's close: How did its bread-and-butter advertising perform during the quarter as tariff-driven economic uncertainty started to bubble up, and how have more recent trade war developments changed advertisers' behavior, particularly China-based businesses, if at all? The second theme is Meta's AI spending plans in the face of elevated uncertainty. Is CEO Mark Zuckerberg standing by its $60 to $65 billion capital expenditures guidance? LSEG estimates: revenue of $41.39 billion and EPS: $5.28. The conversation on AI spending also will be playing out on Microsoft's earnings call on Wednesday night. For roughly two months now, questions have been swirling about Microsoft's data center expansion leases, with various reports of lease cancelations and pauses. Hopefully, analysts and investors alike get further clarity on this and the company's capex intentions more broadly. The most important metric in the report is Azure cloud growth for both the January-to-March period and guidance for the current quarter. LSEG estimates: revenue of $68.44 billion and EPS: $3.22. Shares of Linde , which reports Thursday morning, have acted quite defensively this year for a company sensitive to economic growth. The nature of Linde's localized industrial gas business makes it so its impact is more indirect — in other words, if an uncertain macro forces its customers to pull back their production, then Linde could see that show up in its volumes. The comforting thing for investors is that Linde's management team is known for its conservatism with its guidance, and a weaker U.S. dollar could also be a tailwind to earnings growth. LSEG estimates: revenue: of $8.24 billion and EPS: $3.92. For Eli Lilly 's results on Thursday morning, the most important drugs remain Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for obesity, and analysts see them generating combined revenues of $6.06 billion in the quarter. This time around, though, Lilly's call may spend a lot more time away from the GLP-1 market, with tariffs and the evolving regulatory regime in Washington — ranging from drug-price negotiations to industry critic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation's top health official — as being major discussion points. To be sure, pipeline commentary, especially expectations for its GLP-1 pill , also will be influential. LSEG estimates: revenue: $12.67 billion and EPS: $3.05. Tariffs will be the dominant story on Thursday night when Apple reports. We'll finally hear directly from CEO Tim Cook on how the company has responded thus far on production and plans to proceed from here, given it is currently exempt from the most aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports but still faces the looming threat of electronics-specific duties. Last Tuesday, new data showed that American consumers are prepared to remain loyal to the iPhone. On Friday, Reuters reported Apple is trying to make most of its U.S.-sold iPhones in India by the end of 2026. The other main angle is how tariffs have changed customer behavior. Did a lot of purchases get pulled into March quarter to beat tariff price hikes, leading to more subdued demand in the current quarter? LSEG estimates: revenue of $94.3 billion and EPS: $1.62. Amazon 's forward commentary on how the tariffs are affecting its ecommerce, Amazon Web Services and advertising businesses will carry greater weight than the first-quarter results themselves. On the retail side, have customers been stocking up to beat tariffs, and how is the company handling supply? Are sellers hiking their prices ? For AWS, is the uncertain environment changing customers' consumption habits and IT budgets at all? Of course, analysts also will press on Amazon's data center and AI spending strategy . On the ad front, Amazon has exposure to China-based marketers, like Meta, and weaker consumer spending could generally pressure ad spending. Profitability is a key watch item, too. LSEG estimates: revenue of $154.92 billion and EPS: $1.36. When DuPont reports Friday morning, investors will be in search of updates on what the tariffs mean for customer demand — spanning industries such as electronics, automotive and construction — rather than the company's own import exposure. DuPont's business in China, which is almost a fifth of its sales, will be a big focus, and executives will surely get questions about Beijing's investigation into the firm . DuPont's electronics spinoff planned for later this year figures to be discussed, as well. LSEG estimates: revenue of $94.3 billion and EPS of 95 cents. Rounding out the week alongside DuPont on Friday morning is electrical equipment supplier Eaton , which has seen its stock hit hard this year as investors questioned the sustainability of data center investments. That crucial business will be a topic of conversation, as well as the company's direct tariff exposure and the secondary effect on customer demand in businesses including automotive. Order growth, project backlog and margins are important metrics to watch. LSEG estimates: revenue of $6.26 billion and EPS of $2.70. Week ahead Monday, April 28 Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Before the bell: Roper Technologies (ROP), Domino's Pizza (DPZ) After the close: Cadence Design Systems (CDS), Rambus (RMBS), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Nucor (NUE), Waste Management (WM), Noble Corporation (NE), Leggett & Platt (LEG) Tuesday, April 29 Census Bureau's Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey at 10 a.m. ET Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: UPS (UPS), Honeywell (HON) , General Motors (GM), Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO), JetBlue (JBLU), PayPal (PYPL), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Hilton Hotels (HLT), Deutsche Bank (DB), Adidas (ADS), Spotify (SPOT), Brinker International (EAT), Royal Caribbean (RCL) After the bell: Visa (V), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Starbucks (SBUX) , Mondelez International (MDLZ), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), PPG Industries (PPG), Expand Energy (EXE) Wednesday, April 30 ADP's Employment Survey at 8:15 a.m. ET Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter Advance Estimate at 8:30 a.m. ET Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index at 10 a.m. ET National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Caterpillar (CAT), Humana (HUM), GSK (GSK), Barclays (BCS), Airbus (AIR), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), GE Healthcare (GEHC), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL), International Paper (IP), Wingstop (WING), ADP (ADP) After the bell: Qualcomm (QCOM), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), Robinhood (HOOD), Teladoc Health (TDOC), KLA Corp (KLA), MGM Resorts (MGM), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Thursday, May 1 Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET ISM's Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Eli Lilly (LLY), Linde (LIN), CVS Health (CVS), McDonald's (MCD), Mastercard (MA), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Shake Shack (SHAK), Sirius XM (SIRI), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Biogen (BIIB), Moderna (MRNA), Wayfair (W), Cardinal Health (CAH), Roblox (RBLX) After the bell: Amgen (AMGN), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Roku (ROKU), Airbnb (ABNB), Block (XYZ), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Juniper Networks (JNP), Mohawk Industries (MHK), U.S. Steel (X), Reddit (RDDT), Live Nation (LYV), Stryker (SYK), EOG Resources (EOG), Ingersoll Rand (IR) Friday, May 2 April Nonfarm Payrolls Report at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Eaton (ETN), Cigna (CI), DuPont (DD), FuboTV (FUBO), Wendy's (WEN), Shell (SHEL), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Apollo Global Management (APO) Saturday, May 3 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

This story originally appeared on: CNBC - Author:Kevin Stankiewicz