Mortgage Rates on June 19, 2023: Rates Decline If you're shopping for a home loan, see how the Fed's interest rate hikes could affect you
This week, some notable mortgage rates sank, though rates remain high compared to a year ago
A couple of important mortgage rates sank over the last seven days. 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates both trended lower. At the same time, average rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages increased.
After hiking interest rates 10 times since March 2022, the Federal Reserve pumped the brakes during its June meeting. The central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate will remain at a range of 5.00% to 5.25% for the time being, although the Fed hasn’t ruled out the possibility of further increases if inflation doesn’t continue to moderate.
As long as inflation continues to trend downward, experts say a pause in rate hikes from the Fed could bring some stability to today’s volatile mortgage rate market.
Mortgages hit a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macroeconomic environment is changing again. Rates dipped significantly in January before climbing back up in February. Aside from a brief surge towards the end of May, rates continue to fluctuate in the 6% to 7% range.
Even though the Fed hit pause on rate hikes, mortgage interest rates will continue to fluctuate on a daily basis. That's because mortgage rates aren't tied to the federal funds rate in the same way other products are, such as home equity loans and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. Mortgage rates respond to a variety of economic factors, including inflation, employment and the broader outlook for the economy.
"Mortgage rates will continue to ebb and flow week to week, but ultimately, I think rates will stick to that 6% to 7% range we're seeing now,” says Jacob Channel, senior economist at loan marketplace LendingTree. “I don't anticipate them to spike or even show a sustained spike following this meeting," Channel says.
Overall, inflation remains high but has been slowly, but consistently, falling every month since it peaked in June 2022.
After raising rates dramatically in 2022, the Fed opted for smaller, 25-basis-point increases in its first three meetings of 2023. The decision to hold rates steady on June 14 suggests that inflation is cooling and ongoing rate hikes may no longer be necessary to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. The central bank is unlikely to cut rates any time soon, but positive signaling from the Fed and cooling inflation may ease some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates.
“Rates are getting to a point of being steady. So, it’s more a question of how long it will take for rates to start ticking back down and when inflation will return to a place where your dollar starts buying a little bit more each month,” said Kevin Williams, founder of Full Life Financial Planning.
However, mortgage rates remain well above where they were a year ago. Fewer buyers are willing to jump into the housing market, driving demand down and causing home prices in some regions to ease, but that's only part of the home affordability equation.
"Interest rates have been much higher in the past and people bought homes and financed homes at those rates. But it's been hard for people to react to such a rapid increase in just a short amount of time," says Daniel Oney, research director at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. "Everybody had a target for how much they needed to save in order to go into the housing market, but when interest rates increased, those goal posts moved too," he added.
What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time. "Expect mortgage rates to yo-yo up and down in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus about when the Fed will conclude raising interest rates," says Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. McBride expects rates to fall more consistently as the year progresses. "Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates will end the year near 5.25%," he predicts.
Rather than worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their situation.
"The most important thing is that they find the right home. The second most important thing is obviously to find the most efficient way to finance it," says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.
Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your odds of qualifying for the lowest rate available. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you compare apples to apples.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.00%, which is a decline of 6 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed mortgages are the most common loan term. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage will usually have a lower monthly payment than a 15-year one -- but typically a higher interest rate. Although you'll pay more interest over time -- you're paying off your loan over a longer timeframe -- if you're looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.41%, which is a decrease of 4 basis points from seven days ago. Compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year fixed mortgage with the same loan value and interest rate will have a larger monthly payment. But a 15-year loan will usually be the better deal, if you can afford the monthly payments. You’ll usually get a lower interest rate, and you’ll pay less interest in total because you’re paying off your mortgage much quicker.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.13%, an increase of 5 basis points compared to a week ago. For the first five years, you’ll typically get a lower interest rate with a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage. However, you might end up paying more after that time, depending on the terms of your loan and how the rate shifts with the market rate. Because of this, an adjustable-rate mortgage could be a good option if you plan to sell or refinance your house before the rate changes. If not, changes in the market could significantly increase your interest rate.
Mortgage rate trends
Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021 but increased steadily throughout 2022. Now, mortgage rates are roughly twice what they were a year ago, pushed up by persistently high inflation. That high inflation prompted the Fed to raise its target federal funds rate seven times in 2022. By raising rates, the Fed makes it more expensive to borrow money and more appealing to keep money in savings, suppressing demand for goods and services.
Mortgage interest rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed’s actions in the same way that, say, rates for a home equity line of credit do. But they do respond to inflation. As a result, cooling inflation data and positive signals from the Fed will influence mortgage rate movement more than the most recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
We use information collected by Bankrate to track rate changes over time. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the country:
Current average mortgage interest rates
| Loan type | Interest rate | A week ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed rate | 7.00% | 7.06% | -0.06 |
| 15-year fixed rate | 6.41% | 6.45% | -0.04 |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.03% | 7.06% | -0.03 |
| 30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.13% | 7.16% | -0.03 |
Rates as of June 19, 2023.
How to find personalized mortgage rates
To find a personalized mortgage rate, meet with your local mortgage broker or use an online mortgage service. When looking into home mortgage rates, consider your goals and current finances.
A range of factors -- including your down payment, credit score, loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio -- will all affect your mortgage rate. Generally, you want a higher credit score, a higher down payment, a lower DTI and a lower LTV to get a lower interest rate.
Apart from the mortgage interest rate, other factors including closing costs, fees, discount points and taxes might also impact the cost of your house. Make sure to shop around with multiple lenders -- such as credit unions and online lenders in addition to local and national banks -- in order to get a mortgage loan that's best for you.
What’s the best loan term?
One important thing to consider when choosing a mortgage is the loan term, or payment schedule. The mortgage terms most commonly offered are 15 years and 30 years, although you can also find 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages. Mortgages are further divided into fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. For fixed-rate mortgages, interest rates are the same for the life of the loan. For adjustable-rate mortgages, interest rates are the same for a certain number of years (most frequently five, seven or 10 years), then the rate adjusts annually based on the market rate.
One factor to think about when deciding between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage is the length of time you plan on living in your house. For people who plan on staying long-term in a new house, fixed-rate mortgages may be the better option. Fixed-rate mortgages offer greater stability over time compared to adjustable-rate mortgages, but adjustable-rate mortgages might offer lower interest rates upfront. If you aren't planning to keep your new home for more than three to 10 years, though, an adjustable-rate mortgage might give you a better deal. The best loan term is entirely dependent on your specific situation and goals, so make sure to think about what’s important to you when choosing a mortgage.
This story originally appeared on: CNet - Author:Justin Jaffe
